Who knows?

We are talking about the General Election here, firstly on a UK basis, and secondly on a Scottish basis.

The UK arguement, it seems to me, is for the Liberal Democrats to win or lose.

They really do need to add at least 10 percentage points, somehow, someway, to achieve a breakthrough . I am not sure that they can.

It would, I think, take a black swan sort of  day for that to happen. Gordon Brown has offerred chances, David 'Teflon' Cameron has not.

Least that's how I see it.

On the question of how our three party politics works out, for the Tories are irrelevant, is far more difficult to discern.


It is reasonable to assume that Liberals and SNP will continue to do vote attrition on Labour, but will it be enough to gain them the odd seat?

Who knows?